An Israeli commentator has argued that the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran could reshape the political map of the Middle East and potentially end the...

Israeli commentator says Iran war could signal end of Sykes-Picot order An Israeli commentator has argued that the ongoing US-Israeli war against Iran could reshape the political map of the Middle East and potentially end the century-old regional order established after World War I, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Writing in the Israeli outlet Yedioth Ahronot, Meir Swissa said the conflict may become a turning point for the region’s geopolitical structure. “The Israeli-American war against Iran’s axis of evil is not just a military confrontation. It may be the conflict that finally erases the map drawn by Britain and France in 1916," he writes.  He suggested that such a shift could also undermine the existing regional order based on modern nation-states, potentially giving greater influence to tribal and clan-based political structures. Swissa argued that the weakening of Iran’s regional influence could expose the fragility of the network Tehran built through allied movements and governments across the region. “We are watching, in real time, the collapse of the Sykes-Picot agreements and a return to the Middle East’s authentic structure — a mosaic of tribes, clans and local emirates," he says.  New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters Swissa describes the situation as a paradox in which Israel has effectively acted on behalf of Sunni Arab interests in confronting Iran’s regional influence. "Here lies the fascinating paradox: Israel has effectively become the contractor for the Sunni world," he writes, arguing that some Arab states that oppose the Shia crescent but are reluctant to confront it openly may benefit from the weakening of Iran’s power. According to the commentary, the erosion of Iranian power could weaken what he described as Tehran’s Shia regional axis, particularly in areas where it relied on allied groups backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. "The moment the military strength of Iran’s proxies began to crack, ideology alone could no longer hold territory. Without the boot of the Revolutionary Guard in Beirut, Damascus and Sanaa, the Shiite axis reverts to its historical position — a persecuted and weakened minority in a hostile Sunni sea," he argues.  Swissa also argued that Kurdish groups could emerge as key actors in a changing Middle East, suggesting that the decline of existing political frameworks could open the way for new regional arrangements. “The inevitable finale is already visible on the horizon. If regime change in Tehran is completed, we could find ourselves at the opening of a historic peace conference — Sykes-Picot 2026.”  Israel sees Sykes-Picot borders as 'meaningless', US envoy Tom Barrack says Read More » In August 2025, US special envoy Tom Barrack said that Israel is not interested in adhering to the Middle East's established borders set by the WWI Sykes-Picot agreement and has the “capacity or the desire” to take over Lebanon and Syria.  Barrack made the assessment in an astonishing and candid interview with online personality Mario Nawfal. It was just one of many insights that Barrack, who is at the centre of US diplomacy in the region, shared. In addition, he said that Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa will not sign the Abraham Accords with Israel and alluded to deeply strained ties between Egypt and Israel, which he said are no longer “talking to each other or cooperating”. Barrack, at the time, was the US ambassador to Turkey and later became Trump’s envoy to the wider Eastern Mediterranean and the Caucasus. The Sykes-Picot agreement was a deal signed in 1916 between Britain and France during World War I to divide much of the Ottoman Empire’s Arab territories into spheres of influence after the war. The arrangement helped shape many of the modern borders in the Middle East, including those of Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, and has long been criticised for drawing boundaries that ignored ethnic, tribal and sectarian realities in the region. In the past week, tensions across the Middle East have sharply escalated amid a widening conflict after the US and Israel jointly attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with other senior leaders.  US President Donald Trump has demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” while Nato raised its ballistic missile defence posture after a missile was launched toward Turkey. Israeli jets also carried out strikes in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, and officials estimate that about half a million people have been displaced in Lebanon. Meanwhile, investigations cited by officials suggest the United States may have been responsible for a strike on an Iranian school, adding to the mounting humanitarian and geopolitical fallout from the fighting.